Canals, Claims, and Consequences: The Cholistan Water Debate

Abstract

The Cholistan Canal project, a flagship component of Pakistan's $3.3 billion Green Pakistan Initiative launched in 2023, aims to irrigate 1.2 million acres of arid Cholistan Desert through a 176 km canal, promising enhanced agricultural productivity, food security, and a potential 15–20% boost in agricultural GDP. Proponents view it as essential for converting barren land amid climate volatility, population growth exceeding 240 million, and inefficient water use losing 30–40% of supplies. However, the project has sparked intense controversy, particularly from Sindh, a lower riparian province, which alleges violations of constitutional protocols, including bypassing Council of Common Interests (CCI) approval under Article 154 and expert consultations mandated by the IRSA Act. Critics highlight risks to the fragile Indus Delta ecosystem, where reduced downstream flows below Kotri Barrage have already caused mangrove depletion, saltwater intrusion, fisheries collapse, and delta shrinkage. Inter-provincial tensions have escalated, fueling protests, Sindhi nationalism, and threats to federal coalition stability, while transparency deficits stemming from outdated telemetric systems and absent environmental impact assessments exacerbate mistrust. This study critically analyzes legal, environmental, economic, and socio-political dimensions, revealing deep governance challenges in water allocation under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. It underscores the need for reformed institutions, inclusive stakeholder engagement, and integrated water management to balance developmental aspirations with equity and sustainability, preventing potential zero-sum conflicts in a water-stressed nation.

Keywords: Cholistan Canal, water governance, inter-provincial disputes, Indus Delta, Green Pakistan Initiative