Climate Stress, River Control, and Interstate Rivalry: The Evolution of Pakistan-India Water Politics from 1947 to 2025

Abstract

The water relationship between Pakistan and India has developed into one of the most complex geopolitical issues in South Asia. Since 1947, the division of the Indus Basin has shaped political tensions and security anxieties between the two states. Pakistan’s heavy dependence on the Indus River system for agriculture, energy, and national livelihood has made water a matter of national survival. India’s upstream geographic position and its growing construction of hydropower and storage infrastructure have intensified Pakistan’s concerns over long term water security. Climate stress has further complicated this situation by introducing unpredictable hydrological patterns, rapid glacial melt, and increasing monsoon variability, making Pakistan more vulnerable to water scarcity. This study examines the evolution of Pakistan India water politics from 1947 to 2025 by analyzing the interconnected influence of climate stress, river control, and interstate rivalry. By applying a single theoretical lens, this research explains how environmental pressures, strategic behavior, and geopolitical competition shape water politics in the region. The analysis emphasizes Pakistan’s perspective because the country faces greater vulnerability due to its downstream location and dependence on the Indus Basin. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the long term political and environmental forces that continue to influence water politics between Pakistan and India and highlights the need for cooperative approaches in the face of rising climate challenges.

Keywords: Climate Stress, River Control, Interstate Rivalry, Evolution of Pakistan-India, Water Politics