Afghanistan After the U.S. Withdrawal: Implications for Pakistan and South Asian Regional Security
Abstract
The withdrawal of the United States and NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 fundamentally altered the strategic and security environment of South Asia. Rather than producing the anticipated stabilization of Afghanistan and a reduction in regional insecurity, the post-withdrawal period has generated a complex security dilemma between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Taliban's return to power created expectations in Islamabad that the new authorities in Kabul would prevent Afghan territory from being used against Pakistan, particularly by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). These expectations have increasingly been frustrated by the persistence of militant sanctuaries, cross-border attacks, border confrontations and political disagreements. The problem has been compounded by the emergence of Baloch insurgent networks, including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), as an additional concern in Pakistan's western security environment. Pakistan maintains that militant leadership and networks operate from Afghan territory, whereas the Afghan Taliban repeatedly deny providing sanctuary or permitting anti-Pakistan operations.
This article examines the post-U.S.-withdrawal Afghan security environment and its implications for Pakistan and wider South Asian regional security. It argues that the central problem is not simply the existence of militant organizations but the emergence of an unresolved cross-border security dilemma in which militant mobility, disputed border management, diplomatic mistrust, border closures, refugee repatriation and retaliatory military actions mutually reinforce one another. The article further argues that Pakistan's attempts at diplomatic engagement, negotiations, border management and counterterrorism cooperation have so far failed to generate a sustainable security arrangement. The resulting instability has implications beyond bilateral relations, affecting regional connectivity, CPEC, trade with Central Asia, refugee governance and the broader security architecture of South Asia. The article concludes that durable stability requires Kabul to provide verifiable assurances against the use of Afghan territory for attacks on neighboring states, while Pakistan must combine calibrated security measures with sustained diplomacy, humanitarian safeguards and regional multilateral engagement.
Keywords: Afghanistan, Pakistan, TTP, BLA, Taliban, border security, terrorism, South Asian security, refugees, regional stability
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22771282
