Gulf Goals: Pakistan’s Middle East Balancing Act between Competing Rivals and Allies

Abstract

Pakistan purports to play the perilous game of negotiating the Gulf’s shifting sands, but in reality it is a game of diplomatic whack a mole. Sandwiched between the Saudi petro-dollar; the Iranian pipeline; the Turkish ambition; the Emirati influence and the ever present Israeli specter, Islamabad has no grand strategy only a set of reactive, contradictory stances that annoy everyone and offend everyone. This article debunks the fantasy of Pakistan as savvy "balancer" in the Middle East. Through foreign policy analysis and interviews with a dozen former Pakistani diplomats and two former foreign secretaries, we reveal three deadly balancing acts. First, the Saudi Iran balancing act: Pakistan refuses to meet Riyadh's demands for battle-hardy troops in Yemen, while accepting Saudi bailouts and deferred payments for oil a disingenuity that both Riyadh and Tehran now view with disgust. Second, the Turkey UAE Saudi triangle eg. Pakistan's military agreements with Turkey (including drones and training) jeopardize its economic ties with Abu Dhabi, its largest investor in the real estate and banking sectors, making Saudis wonder if Islamabad is friend or foe. Third, the Israel trap like the US and Gulf regimes quietly lobby for ties but any move would blow a fuse on Pakistan's street from the religious right to the intelligence agencies igniting an internal time bomb. The 2022 economic crisis has reduced Pakistan to a mendicant; Gulf bailouts carry a price to diplomatic freedom. Then, there is the border harassment and the gas pipeline ultimatum from Iran. This study shows Pakistan's Gulf ambitions are a mirage. The Saudis want manpower, the Iranians want the pipeline and the Americans want Israeli flags in Islamabad and none of them are patient. It finds that Pakistan needs to drop ideological pretensions and get tough on economic survival, including an official neutrality in the Gulf and imported energy sources from Russia and Central Asia. Without this, Pakistan will soon be the sacrificed chess piece.

Keywords: Gulf Policy, Strategic Hedging, Saudi‑Iran Rivalry, Israel Normalization, Turkey‑UAE Competition, Diplomacy