JCPOA Revival: Implications for Regional Security Architecture and Non-Proliferation

Abstract

Iran's determination to attain nuclear weapon technology is perceived as a threat to regional security and global peace. The international community has been attempting for a long time to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The absence of resources, crippling economy, and a hyperinflation obligated Iran to come out of isolation. In 2015, Iran and a group of major world powers - the P5+1 entered into a long-term nuclear agreement; The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Plan held out the prospect of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The deal's high hopes, however, were quickly ruined when Donald Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018. The contract promises all struggles to limit Iran's nuclear programme. Following Trump's withdrawal, if the JCPOA is no longer sufficient to restrain Iran's nuclear ambitions, the Middle East would be thrust into a ferocious nuclear arms race and strategic vulnerability. Iranian conservatives will start to take control of Iranian foreign policy and the ensuing political unrest will distance Iran even more from the JCPOA and any potential upcoming settlements with the West.  The JCPOA's revival is a cumbersome challenge for the Biden administration because the post-2018 impasse significantly reduced its effectiveness in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Due to the resulting security conundrum, several developments in the regional and global political environment where neither party is willing to compromise could potentially trigger challenges to the regional security architecture and nonproliferation. This research brings a way forward for the policy makers that how the JCPOA affects both instant regional security and the global non-proliferation regime thus opening the paths for various diplomatic and strategic options for future stability. Given the developing geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and beyond the restoration of JCPOA can further promote significant understandings for the power dynamics in Middle East. It could bound Iran’s nuclear threshold status, reduce nuclear threat among neighboring countries i.e. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel and provides broader insights about nuclear arrangements and structures to maintain status quo for regional security fears with international non-proliferation ambitions.

Keywords: JCPOA Revival, Regional Security Architecture, Non-Proliferation, Geopolitical Dynamics