The Evolution of Pakistan’s Nuclear Policy: From Security Dilemma to Strategic Stability

Abstract

Pakistan’s nuclear policy has evolved significantly since its inception, driven by regional security dynamics and geopolitical challenges. The 1998 nuclear tests marked Pakistan’s formal entry into the nuclear club, a response to India’s tests and perceived existential threats. Rooted in a security dilemma stemming from the Indo-Pak rivalry, Pakistan’s nuclear program transitioned from a focus on minimum deterrence to full-spectrum deterrence under General Musharraf, aiming to balance India’s conventional and nuclear superiority. Historical milestones, such as the 1974 Indian nuclear test, accelerated Pakistan’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities, with clandestine collaborations and technological advancements playing pivotal roles. Internationally, Pakistan’s nuclear policy has been shaped by treaties like the NPT, though it remains outside the framework, citing regional asymmetries. Domestic factors, including civil-military relations and political discourse, further influence its nuclear posture. Despite concerns over proliferation, Pakistan has emphasized nuclear security through robust command structures and safeguards. Strategic stability in South Asia remains elusive, with ongoing arms races and mistrust complicating efforts for crisis stability. The document underscores Pakistan’s nuclear trajectory as a blend of defensive pragmatism and strategic necessity, highlighting its role in regional deterrence while acknowledging unresolved challenges.

Keywords: Pakistan, Nuclear Policy, Security Dilemma, Strategic Stability, Deterrence, India-Pakistan Rivalry, Nuclear Proliferation, Full-Spectrum Deterrence, Cold War Legacy, Regional Security